The number of characters
So I’m actually going to make a bold prediction. I think
everyone is overblowing Sakurai’s statement about there not being a lot of
newcomers in smash ultimate. 5-6 characters is waaay to low of an estimation
when you take into account this game has been worked on since 2015 and when a
lot of its content has been imported from the prior entries of the series. Not
to mention so far there doesn’t seem to be any huge time sinks like Brawl and
smash 4(duel versions or a story mode) . Not to mention most modern smash games
have added SOOOO many new characters in a single go, that higher numbers could
very easily be considered not a lot. For example melee had 8 full new characters
and 6 semi clones. Brawl had 16 full new characters and 2 semi clones. 4 had 15
totally new characters and 3 echoes at launch.
Personally I’m going to guess about 8-12 full new characters
and then 3-4 echoes. Particularly given the echoes seem to require even less
work than semi-clones did, and aren’t even counted towards the roster number. So
essentially I think we’ll get a handful less newcomers, but not a ridiculously lower
number.
Newcomers
King K.Rool
Series:
Donkey Kong
It’s happening and there’s no way you can convince me it’s not going to happen. K.Rool is pretty much the defacto “Nintendo fan” desired character at this point and typically destroys the competition in most fan polls and ballots. Given smash ballot is clearly going to influence the roster of smash ultimate and the fact Sakurai conceded to adding Ridley of all people due to fan outcry, the chances of K.Rool not also being added due to similar fan outcry seems unlikely to me.
Ashley
Series:
Wario Ware
Ashley
is another character I’m fairly sure is going to make it in this time around.
She’s pretty obviously the most popular character in the Warioware series,
which hasn’t really gotten any representation outside of Wario himself. She was
popular enough to get acknowledged with a mii fighter costume in 4, and her
assist trophy has been suspiciously absent so far in ultimate. She’s also been
getting an increased pushed in marketing material from Nintendo, particularly
in their badge arcade game.
Issac
Series:
Golden Sun
Issac is in a similar boat to K.Rool. He’s lacking significantly in relevance given his series has been dormant for the better part of a decade , but he’s become such an ensemble darkhorse in the smash community that his rating in smash ballot might just be enough to propel him to playable status. Additionally I have a theory myself he was already considered at one point, given his assist trophy from brawl was removed for some reason.
Bandana dee
Series:
Kirby
I
don’t actually think I want Bandana dee
in smash bros that much, but I can’t deny he’s pretty much become a main
character in the Kirby series at this point. Given his increased prominence,
and the fact he seems to have a decent
amount of fans, I can definitely see him being added to smash bros this time
around. Likewise there has been rumors that he has amiibo data hidden in other
Nintendo games, that point to him potentially getting a smash amiibo at some
point, which would support him becoming a character.
Elma
Series: Xenoblade
I know most people expect a rep from Xenoblade chronicles 2, but
honestly I think that’s pretty unlikely. From what I can understand the actual
designs for the characters from that game weren’t even completed by the time
smash ultimate’s project plan was finalized, so it’s actually near impossible
for Sakurai to include a lot of content from that game. Xenoblade chronicles X
conversely was released at a time when characters for Smash ultimate where
being chosen, so Elma simply has better timing if we need to have a Xeno rep.
Additionally it’s been speculated a post Sakurai made referencing action
figures used for posing references a few months back may have been referring to
Elma, due to it having similarities to the Skell weapons used in that game.
Geno
Series:Mario
I honestly never thought we’d see Geno in smash, but if he’s ever going
to have a chance this is probably going to be the game. They already have Cloud,
so getting another character from Enix shouldn’t be that difficult. He’s also a
character Sakurai himself has wanted to add to the roster to the point where he’s
specifically acknowledged it was the reason why he got a costume in 4. Geno’s
also maintained at least a decent amount of fans support for decades, and the
anniversary of Mario RPG is this year as well.
Andy, Sami and Max
Series:
Wars
OK
this is really more of a personal desire and I don’t think it’s going to
happen, but I would love to see some advance wars characters like Andy and Sami
in smash. The wars series has been around since the 1980s and the fact it has
been all but forgotten in favor of Fire emblem these days is really sad. In
terms of character design I think this tank riding concept I found on deviant
art would be cool, with the addition of having Sami and Max in the tank with
him to perform additional attacks. https://www.deviantart.com/evilwaluigi/art/Newcomer-Andy-206410727
I also
think he could reasonably count as a “retro rep” for people who like that sorta
thing.
Simon Belmont
Series: Castlavania
Simon Belmont is probably my most desired Konami rep outside of Snake. I think he makes a lot sense given he’s one of the more famous characters in video game history and his home series is fairly well known for having loads of exclusive games on Nintendo hardware. Simon himself is also notable for having somewhat of an intense rivalry with Link, in a similar vain to Mario and Sonic, giving him that angle to work from as well. He was also on the Vergenben leak, which so far seems pretty accurate.
Lloyd Irving
Series:Tales of
Ok I’ll admit to some personal bias again here, but I do expect Namco
to get at least one more rep and a character from a more popular series like tales
makes sense to me. Not to mention tales
of symphonia specifically is the best selling game in the series and was
originally Nintendo exclusive when it first came out. Considering that I think Lloyd has a fairly
decent chance and the fact Sakurai decided to acknowledge him with a Mii
costume in 4 supports that. Now tbf I think Lloyd could possibly be beaten out
by another Namco character, like Heihachi from Tekken, but if he’s not
on the main roster, I would be willing to bet he would show up as DLC.
Rayman
Series: Rayman
I know a lot of people have said they’re not sure whether or not a
western character is ever going to show up in smash bros, but I think Rayman
has paid his dues at this point. Ubisoft might not be synonymous with Nintendo,
but Rayman has a large enough presence on their systems for his inclusion to
make sense. Likewise given Ubisoft had a major crossover game with Nintendo
with Mario + rabids, and I think that reflects a relationship strong enough for
a deal like this to work out.
Shantae (or
shovel knight)
Series: Shantae
I’m going to be honest. I’m not sure how possible an “Indie rep”
really is. A lot of the 3rd party characters have the benefit of
coming from series with significantly larger pull in the industry or have more
direct connections to Nintendo (having projects funded by them or crossing over
with Nintendo IPs).The idea that a character that’s comparatively much smaller
in mainstream appeal and in some cases may not even have a significant presence
in japan, seems unlikely to me. Particularly due to the fact that licensing
would affect the ease of adding them into the game.
That being said if it does happen it’s pretty clear to me that the
indie rep would either be Shantae or Shovel knight. Both have a decent amount
of support from the people who want indie reps, and both have at least some connotations
with Nintendo given their games have released primarily for their system.
When choosing between the two I’m kind of split though. It’s
pretty clear to me that Shovel knight is the more immediately popular of the
two and his connection to Nintendo is arguably slightly stronger given at the
very least he got an amiibo and Nintendo published shovel knight in japan. He’s
also arguably a better rep for the ideas of indies as a whole, given he crosses
over with other projects pretty frequently.
BUUUUUUUUUUT…………..In my own personal opinion Shantae really
deserves to be in smash more from a historical perspective. Her franchise has
been around much longer, her games have been more exclusive to Nintendo in
comparison(it wasn’t until half genie hero that a game was released multi-plat),
and her appeal to be honest goes farther beyond the “flavor of the month”
status a lot of other indies tend to be in.
Echoes
So some minor thoughts on echoes. It seems to me that the main
point of them is to include characters that wouldn’t normally be important or
popular enough to spend the development time needed to make a fully unique
character. I point this out because a lot of the time I see arguments that “x”
shouldn’t be an echo because they have unique moveset potential or something
along those lines. I’m not disagreeing with that sentiment exactly, but going
along with my point that echoes characters typically aren’t important enough
for a full dev treatment, it seems to me that prospective echo characters would
either make it in as an echo or not at all. Because of that I think making
compromises on moveset potential makes more sense than excluding characters due
to not wanting them to be straight clones of another character.
Dark Samus
Series: Metroid
Dark
Samus seems like a pretty reasonable echo fighter. She was pretty much the main
villain of the entire Metroid prime franchise and said prime series is due to
make a reappearance sometime in the next year or so. Likewise Samus’s dark Samus
variant is conspicuously absent for whatever reason.
Dixie Kong
Series: Donkey Kong
Another pretty likely echo fighter. Dixie was already
considered to be added back in the brawl days, but didn’t make the cut. She’s
fairly relevant again given she showed up in the last DK country game, which
got a port to the switch this year. Also she’s similar enough to Diddy that
copying his moveset should be fine.
Shadow
Series: Sonic The Hedghog
Shadow’s
polarizing to sonic fans, but I can’t deny he’s probably the most popular
character besides Sonic himself, and the easiest to make an echo given his
similar body type. He also does in fact play similarly to sonic in most of his appearances
and has all the same abilities, despite also having the chaos powers. The only
thing holding him back is that I wouldn’t normally expect two reps from the
same 3rd party series, but I think Sonic deserves it after sticking
with smash for 3 installments, and I can’t imagine they removed his assist
trophy for no reason.
Issabelle
Series: Animal Crossing
I’m actually surprised how much support Isabella has, but I guess
it makes sense. Her popularity in the animal crossing community has pretty much
exploded since new leaf, and she’s more or less become the mascot of the series
now. She also got a guest appearance in Mario kart, something only other big
name characters like Link, Inkling and Pacman have done. Tbh I don’t see her as
much of a fighter, but neither was villager, so making her an echo of him seems
like it would work well.
DLC
So
I’m going to make another bold prediction. We’re going to get a lot more
character DLC in this game in comparison to the last game. It seemed like in
smash bros 4 they were still very hesitant to go all in on the concept, so they
kind of tested the waters a bit by announcing Mewtwo and didn’t really add too
much else until the idea of DLC became more receptive. Likewise obviously the
length the DLC was being developed for was probably limited by the fact that
Ultimate was being planned and worked on during the same timespan.
Taking those factors into account I would
actually think we could get another 10-12 characters via DLC, including echoes.
This being because smash 4 had about 7 DLC characters before ending its run and I
think Sakurai could see DLC as a good
way to expand the roster if it has a smaller newcomer jump in the base game compared
to the last few entries.
Octoling(agent 8)
Series:Splatoon
I
think agent 8 is a pretty obvious choice for an echo. Mechanically speaking octolings
already act like inklings in gameplay, and frankly octolings as a species are
super popular right now due to octo expansion Splatoon DLC. In fact I would
even be willing to bet agent 8 could be a last minute echo character in the
base game due to her sudden surge in popularity, though I think DLC is a safer
bet since ultimate got finalized way before her inception was even thought of.
Ninten
Series: Earthbound
So Ninten doesn’t have a lot of relevancy, but he seems like he
would be an easy character to add as an echo of Ness and it would be nice to
have all 3 mother protagonist playable in the same game. Not much else to say
besides that.
Impa
Series: Zelda
I think Impa is one of the few Zelda characters left that’s
actually pretty viable for smash. Impa makes notable appearances in multiple Zelda
games, either as Zelda’s protector or as a sage. She a member of the sheikien
tribe, and has proven she can fight in multiple appearances. Likewise the
nature of her backstory in most games means she can probably be an echo of
Sheik with little issue.
Rex and
Pyra
Series: Xenoblade
I think Rex and Pyra are basically a forgone conclusion at this
point. Not only are they fairly popular, but xenoblade 2 sold fairly well when
it came out last year. The only reason why I assume they would be DLC, instead
of being on the base roster, is because the development for Xenoblade 2 started
after ultimate’s project plan was finalized.
Spring man
Series:Arms
Spring
man is in the same situation as Rex and Pyra. Arms sold well and he’s a
reasonably popular choice (if albeit bland compared to the rest of his cast). Unfortunately
his game probably wasn’t far along enough in development when ultimate’s
project plan was finalized to be considered. Considering that DLC seems like it
would make a fair amount of sense.
Though
secretly honestly I kind of hope a different arms character like Twintail or
Minin would be chosen over him.
Wonder Red
Series: Wonderful 101
A slightly less requested choice, but one I still like. People forget
but the wonderful 101 is 100% Nintendo
owned, and given it was one of the more recent additions to the IP stable, it
makes sense that its main character might appear in smash. Likewise given there
was at least some interest in a sequel, extra exposure in smash probably can’t
hurt (along with a switch port for that matter).
Phoenix Wright
Series: Ace Attorney
If
Capcom gets another rep, I think Phoenix is probably the safest bet. Ace attorney
started on the Gameboy advanced and has pretty much been synonymous with their
handhelds for decades. The series also is still widely popular and has a second
anime season coming soon. I also can’t imagine Phoenix’s non-combat roles in
his games being much of an issue when he was already a character in the
fighting game marvel vs Capcom 3.
Professor Layton
Series: Professor Layton
Layton
would be a good addition for similar reasons to Phoenix Wright. His series has
mainly been on Nintendo handhelds, and is mostly associated with the Nintendo brand.
He also has some connections to Nintendo already, given Nintendo publishes most
of his games outside Japan. He himself also does have some combat abilities in
his games despite their VN nature, which could work well for smash.
Banjo Kazooie
Series:
Banjo Kazooie
Another character I would have called a long shot, but I’m actually starting to think is possible now. The biggest obstacle with these characters isn’t how much of a connection they have with Nintendo, but how easy it would be to license them since they’re now owned by a competing console manufacturer. However in recent years it seems like Microsoft and Nintendo have actually been getting along with each rather well and are actually fairly willing to collaborate. Not only have they embraced cross play with each other, but Microsoft has actually let Nintendo sell minecraft on their own system. Heck its rumored minecraft might have some presence in smash already.
Considering
that and the fact the current president of Microsoft has said multiple times
that he’d be fine with Banjo being a smash character, I think there’s a solid
chance for their appearance. My only concern is given the Phil fishers comments
about banjo were made in 2015 and 2018 respectively, I feel like Banjo has a
higher chance of being DLC, given Phil probably wouldn’t have made a comment if
he had been in the base game.
Heihachi
Heihachi is my least desired smash character that I think is going
to make it in. Not because of namco’s involvement with smash or his mii costume
in 4, but because Sakurai himself has pretty much said outright that he considered
as an actual character in 4. He simply just couldn’t get his moveset to work
the way he wanted to at the time.
Sora
I consider Sora to be the holy grail of 3rd party reps.
Even more than Banjo. You see despite the fact he stars in a game enix makes,
the rights to his character and all KH original content actually belongs to
Disney. Which means Nintendo would actually have to go through a non-video game
company to get him for smash. Personally I don’t think it’s impossible, and
while KH is more aligned with Sony, it still has enough presence on Nintendo consoles
that I think adding him would be worth the trouble. Bonus points if Mickey, Donald and goofy show
up in his final smash or something, since that would be a huge mindfuck.
What I don’t want
Anymore FE
reps
I think FE is good on newcomers for the moment. It got a lot of
reps in the last game and honestly everyone and their mother is so pissed off
about it, that I would rather not have to deal with anymore salt regarding the
series in smash. At best I would be fine with Chrom becoming an echo, but even
then I’m not sure how much I’d want that, since it could be seen as over
representing the awakening characters.
Anymore
Mario reps
I don’t think Mario has been totally depleted of good characters,
but I honestly think we’ve reached the point where everyone should be pretty
content with what we already have. Mario has 8 characters now, and I’ll be
honest I just don’t find characters like Toad or Waluigi interesting enough or
important enough to spend dev time on over newcomers from other series. The
only rep I think really has any potential from Mario at this point is probably
Paper Mario, given he stars in an entire sub series of Mario games and probably
has the best moveset potential. Even then I’m really not pushing that hard for
him given I’d still rather have any other character from a different games
series.
I would also point out that while Enix does own Geno, he is in
fact a Mario character, so he would be considered a Mario series new rep if he
got in.
Anymore Pokemon reps
So this is probably another hard sell, but honestly I think I’m
pretty content on Pokemon as well. It also has 8 characters at this point, and
there’s not a lot I super want from the franchise if it means taking away a lot
from another series. I could see one of the starter Pokemon or mimickyu making
it in, but I’m not asking hard for it.
Crash, spyro,
Doomguy and Solair
I think many of them could fit in smash and I also get their icon
status. I just feel like other 3rd party characters have stronger
ties to Nintendo and are more deserving of entering the series first.
.well cept maybe Solair. He’s pretty gosh darn neat.
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