Ok so the ending of V3 is confusing. I’m going to try to explain it. This isn’t going to be a super long post and I’m going to assume most people who are reading it know the main plot beats already. Shirogane Tsumugi is the mastermind, the cast's personalities were crafted for the game and according to Shirogane the original Danganronpa games were fictional in-universe, etc, etc. I’m going to explain V3 assuming the two things.
Shirogane was lying out of her ass
The Hope's peak saga is canon to the V3 game.
Did the V3 cast willingly join the killing game?
In the final chapter of V3 Shirogane claims that all the characters joined the killing game willingly, but this is clearly a lie. If you go back and check the “true” prologue before anyone's memories are tampered with, Kaede clearly states that she was kidnapped against her will. Likewise, the entire sequence of events with the monokubs contradicts what Shirogane shows to you. Showing the students being confused and frightened about what’s going on, rather than being happy about being chosen for their favorite show.
What likely happened is that Shirogane impersonated the cast and created false audition tapes in order to confuse them. This is actually supported if you check the flooring of the auditions which are exactly the same as Shirogane’s talent room.
Can you explain Shirogane’s cospox?
Shirogane’s Cospox excuse is flimsy. Shirogane states she can’t “cosplay” as a real person or she breaks into hives. But by Shirogane’s own definition the entire cast of V3 is fake so that shouldn’t apply. It made no sense for her to break into hives when cosplaying as Kaede.
What’s more likely is Cospox is a lie made up to give Shirogane an alibi from the first murder case. She likely just changed her appearance to facilitate that lie with her ultimate cosplay ability, as she’s shown to be able to change appearances quickly in V3s final chapter.
Are the V3 cast really ultimates?
The cast of V3 are not ultimates. Kaede outright says she has a passionate hobby, but not something she would call an “ultimate” in the true prologue. The concept of normal people being artificially implanted ultimate talents was also alluded to in Danganronpa IF. Likewise the artbook states the cast normal uniforms were all from the “highschools' ' they originally came from. It’s likely that Monokuma/Shirogane were truthful when they stated they simply gave students talents based on what best suited them.
What about the flashback lights?
The statement of flashback lights inserting memories is likely true and you see lines of dialogue correlating to the memories given whenever one shows up in the story. Including those associated with ultimate talents like Kaede. That said, I don’t think the flashback lights necessarily remove or overwrite memories. The monokubs also state that the flashback light in the prologue was the “first memory” meaning no manipulation happened before that point.
What happened to the V3 cast's memories then?
This is something that’s easy to miss but when Kaede is asked about how she got to V3s setting during the second prologue, you’re shown a scene of her wearing a mysterious helmet, followed by her not remembering.
It’s likely that while flashback lights “insert” memories, they don’t actually erase or overwrite them. So Kaede’s contradictory memories had to be erased after the first flashback light was used. This makes sense if you note that Kaede was wearing her “ultimate” outfit while wearing this helmet(you can see the collar) and that she(and the rest of the cast) only got their ultimate outfits after the true prologue was nearly complete.
Additionally, Suichi has a scene that backs up the helmet being some kind of memory wiping device. After being exposed to another flashback light, Suichi is implanted with this false narrative of the “ultimate hunt”. As part of this narrative “ultimates” erased their memories to hide amongst normal people before a worldwide catastrophe struck. What’s interesting to note is that the part of this memory sequence where he’s wearing the helmet has static and ONLY that specific part. That’s because Suichi having his memories erased is a real memory separate from everything else shown. Given Kaede also had the same memory, we also know it wasn’t exclusive to that flashback light(which Kaede didn’t live long enough to be exposed to).
But wasn’t Rantaro a previous contestant on the Danganronpa show?
Also a lie. Rantaro seemingly has an idea of who Monokuma might be and what’s about to happen in the true prologue, but he explicitly says that “he doesn’t know who’s behind what’s going on”. It’s likely that Shirogane made up everything about him being a prior contestant on the show and that his “survival perk” video was faked similar to the audition tapes. This makes sense when you realize Rantaro was wearing normal street clothes during the true prologue, but the survival perk video has him in his “ultimate” uniform. Rantaro also isn’t recognized by anyone in the true prologue, which is another inconsistency.
The point of the survival perk video and Monopad is to act like a trap. It pushes Rantaro towards taking certain actions, but specifically leaves out information about the school's layout to put him in a position where he would be vulnerable. Rantaro himself even notes that he’s not sure he can trust it.
Suichi say’s Shirogane was copying somebody in the epilogue? Who was it?
She was copying Junko Enoshima. Even discounting the obvious fact that V3 is a killing game, V3’s story mirrors the original Danganronpa game in a lot of ways. From the way certain tropes are followed during trials(normal, normal, double murder, big dude dies, curveball, ending). As well as the fact that the first trial seemingly kills an important character, and the “mastermind” is actually responsible. Then returning to that early murder in the final chapter to corner the villain. Shirogane and Junko also both even try to break the cast in a similar fashion by revealing unpleasant truths about the outside world and giving an ultimatum. It’s just in the case of Shirogane she’s lying about the outside world's state.
And while I don’t think Shirogane had total control over events(I think Koichi really fucked things up for her) I do think the possibility of the cast figuring out the simulation was accounted for. In the original game, Junko outright states she saw the cast confronting her as a possibility. So it makes sense that Shirogane did as well, and had a more elaborate lie prepared to break the cast.
There’s also the fact that there are a few “dropped” plotlines that also mirror the original Danganronpa game, such as Kaede having a twin sister.
Does Team Danganronpa exist?
Yes. At the end of the game, we see their logo on the dome of the school. There’s also the fact that logistically there’s just too much technology in V3 for a single person to create or have access to under normal circumstances. She also couldn’t have kidnapped all these people on her own. It’s likely that Team Danganronpa is somehow related to the “real” remnants of despair. As their modus operandi of kidnapping people is exactly the same as what happened to Komaru in Despair girls.
What about the audience
An audience does exist, since convincing them to side with the cast is a plot point. Keebo also states he was being directed by them. That said I WOULD NOT be surprised if certain elements of them were exaggerated on screen for the sake of confusing the protagonists. I would say it's more likely that the audience were either members of ultimate despair or some other group from the outside world that hasn’t been elaborated on yet.
Was Kiibo always a robot? Was he intended to be used by team Danganronpa from the start?
Yes the artbook states he had a steel body underneath his normal uniform during the true prologue. In terms of always being intended to be used by team Danganronpa, I’m gonna lean no. He was probably targeted and modified after the kidnapping, as he only gets his “ultimate robot” uniform after the true prologue.
How do you explain the timeline, the character cameos, etc?
In the true prologue, it’s shown Kaede attends a normal high school. She and Rantaro do seemingly recognize Monokubs and Kaede implies she knows what ultimates are.
There are case files on events implied to cover previous games. Likewise, you find a book called the history of Hope's peak, which clearly has pictures from the events of Danganronpa 1-3. These pictures aren't noted to be drawn like some case files for that matter and are mentioned to contradict the flash backlight memories
Likewise, while some events are fake Makoto is shown to be the principle of hope's peak.
Shirogane also pretends to be multiple characters from the prior installments and seemingly knows a fairly decent amount about their backstories.
Finally, a lot of tech used in V3 seems extrapolated on tech introduced in prior games. The memory-erasing tech from 1, the video brainwashing tech from the 3 anime, the neo world program from DR2. All the Monokuma bots are controlled by complex AI which was first shown to be possible in Ultra despair girls.
Anyway, I would probably say the V3 takes place much further down on the timeline. Far enough that the world has mostly recovered and that a lot of the events of the previous games have become a bit more historical. They probably view the events of the original games like WW2.
Is Shirogane the real mastermind?
Prooobably. The fake video Shirogane uses to show the cast excited to join the show is clearly spliced with footage from the true prologue. So she must be aware it happened. The “ultimate costumes'' everyone gets in the true prologue are also high quality and were probably made by somebody with a talent like hers. The art book also specifically mentions she has a team Danganronpa pin hidden on her person.
Additionally, while non-canon, her talent development plan ending actually has her talk about a “world” she wants to cosplay. This makes sense because she essentially creates a “fake world” for the character to inhabit in V3
Does anything support all this outside of theories?
Yes, Suichi SPECIFICALLY states that he thinks Shirogane could be lying about the outside world. He also says that hope's peak and the remnants of despair may exist and that Shirogane may have just been basing her performance on them. He also specifically states that interpretation of events makes sense if you conclude that they didn’t join the killing game willingly. Something we know outright was an accurate presumption.
Likewise, Kodaka himself made it a point to tell fans to rewatch the prologue after playing the game. V3s story isn’t meant to be taken at face value.
Summary
Shirogane is a huge fan of Junko and V3 likely takes place farther down the timeline from DR3. She partners with a large remnant of despair affiliated organization that goes by the name Team Danganronpa. They kidnap normal students and alter their memories to make them fictional characters. Then have them engage in a killing game for the sake of entertainment. The game goes off the rails a bit, and Shirogane lies about the outside world to try to break the cast. It doesn’t work and Shirogane loses in a similar way to Junko thereby making her copy complete.
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